I Think People Are Underestimating AI

00:01 — Opening

Hey, welcome to Slow Builds.

This one is going to be about something I keep asking myself.

Am I the only one that sees this?

I don’t think I am.

But I do think a lot of people around me are not seeing the size of the wave that may be coming.

And it almost feels like that story, The Emperor Has No Clothes.

Except I’m not sure which side I’m on.

Am I the one walking around saying something obvious that nobody else sees?

Or am I the one who looks ridiculous because I’m seeing something that isn’t really there?

I don’t know.

But I really think something is coming.

00:54 — AI Feels Different

Part of why this feels strange is that I work in tech.

A lot of the people I work with are using AI.

I’m using AI. We use it at work.

But I don’t think everyone is using it outside of work in the same way.

A lot of people are using ChatGPT like a better Google.

They ask simple questions.

Maybe summarize something.

Maybe help write something.

But they’re not really following what is happening.

They’re not watching the new versions drop.

They’re not seeing what single people are building now with tools that used to require teams.

Every week something new comes out that changes what I thought was possible.

01:46 — Excitement And Fear

There is a reason I stay up too late.

There is a reason I don’t get as much sleep as I probably should.

Part of it is excitement.

But part of it is fear.

Not fear that everything is doomed.

More like fear that I need to be paying attention.

Fear that if I don’t stay close to this, I could get left behind.

I’ve never felt like that with technology before.

A new framework never scared me.

A new database never scared me.

Because those things still required learning and experience.

But this feels different.

AI can already help use the thing before I’ve even properly learned it.

And then the question becomes:

Why do companies need as many people?

03:05 — The Job Question

You still need people.

You still need creativity.

Taste.

Decision making.

But the actual building part may not need the same number of people it used to.

And that’s really what this video is about.

The discomfort of realizing a lot of jobs can already be partially done by AI.

And eventually maybe mostly done by AI.

The only reason some jobs still feel safe may be because companies haven’t fully reorganized around this yet.

Or maybe they already have.

Maybe some layoffs that look normal are actually companies quietly preparing for a more AI-driven structure.

04:39 — Why I’m Paying Attention

I don’t want to be the person sitting there with nothing to say.

If someone asks:

“Do you use AI?”

“What have you built with it?”

“How are you thinking about this?”

I don’t want my answer to be:

“I’m ready to learn.”

I want my answer to be:

“I’m already experimenting.”

“I’m already building.”

“I’m already trying to understand where this is going.”

A lot of people still look at AI like another workplace tool.

Like Word.

Excel.

Another software platform.

But I don’t think that’s what this is.

This may become:

“A tool the company installs into the business… and now they need fewer people.”

07:08 — This Is An Umbrella Video

This is really an umbrella video.

Because there are a bunch of other videos hiding inside this one.

Jobs.

The middle class.

Transportation.

Medicine.

Law.

Food systems.

Automation.

Replication.

But the core idea is simple:

I think people are underestimating what AI is going to do.

07:28 — The Moment That Stuck With Me

I had a conversation recently with a couple of friends.

One of them said she uses ChatGPT sometimes.

Then my wife mentioned that I pay for ChatGPT and use other AI tools too.

And she said:

“There are others?”

That moment stuck with me.

Because there’s a huge group of people who know AI exists…

…but don’t really understand how wide this already is.

08:10 — Why The Messaging Feels Soft

Maybe part of the issue is the news.

Maybe the people explaining this don’t fully understand it.

Or maybe they do understand it, but they’re trying to say it carefully.

Because if they came out and plainly said what some AI leaders are saying…

people might panic.

You hear people from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic talking about where this is going.

And sometimes it feels like they’re basically saying:

“A lot of jobs are going to change very quickly.”

09:11 — The Tesla Example

Then you look at something like Tesla.

If a company is willing to rethink production around robots — even while people are still laughing and saying the robots aren’t ready — that tells you something.

The point isn’t whether they’re perfect today.

The point is whether companies believe they’ll need them tomorrow.

Because if they believe that…

they have to start building now.

10:23 — The Market Already Feels Different

Some people are probably close enough to retirement that they may be okay.

But if they suddenly needed another ten or fifteen years of work…

I don’t know if the same job market will still exist.

I even had a conversation with someone I work with about this.

I told him directly:

Don’t lose your job.

Because I don’t think the market is the same anymore.

Even for senior developers.

Not because experience is worthless.

But because companies may not need the same number of people anymore.

13:35 — This Is Bigger Than Chatbots

People say:

“Well AI gets things wrong.”

And yeah.

It does.

But that’s not the whole story.

AI is already helping with:

• medical research
• diagnostics
• coding
• design
• legal drafting
• research
• support systems
• automation

And when you start reducing white-collar work, research work, analysis work, and support work…

that’s not small.

14:30 — Excited And Concerned At The Same Time

I want to be clear.

I’m excited.

I think this is one of the most interesting moments in history.

But I also think you should be a little scared.

Not hopeless.

Not frozen.

Just aware.

Because once you start pulling on this thread…

…it touches everything.

15:35 — People Are Looking At The Future Using Today’s Rules

People are trying to imagine the future using today’s systems.

Jobs.

Politics.

Money.

Transportation.

Labour.

Food prices.

And from today’s perspective, their arguments make sense.

Historically prices go up.

But what happens if production costs start dropping?

What happens if transportation changes?

Manufacturing changes?

Distribution changes?

If fewer people are needed in those systems…

then fewer people are earning money from those systems.

And eventually that changes everything too.

18:41 — Replication And Automation

Then there’s replication.

What happens when machines can analyze products, materials, ingredients, or designs and recreate versions of them locally?

That’s another entire discussion.

But the larger point stays the same:

I don’t think people are really seeing what’s coming.

20:37 — What I Think We Should Do

So for now, I think we need to:

• stay curious
• learn
• experiment
• pay attention

That’s why I’m building things.

That’s why I’m trying to have fun with this instead of only being afraid of it.

And honestly, I’m trying to help my kids understand it too.

21:22 — Closing

We may be living through one of the biggest shifts in modern history.

Something closer to the industrial age or the internet age.

But maybe faster.

Because the infrastructure already exists.

The internet is here.

Cloud systems are here.

Phones are here.

Payment systems are here.

Data is everywhere.

And now AI becomes this extra layer on top of all of it.

That’s the part that feels different to me.

It’s not starting from zero.

It’s plugging into a world that’s already connected.

And that could change things faster than people expect.

I’m scared of that.

But I’m also excited to see what happens.

Alright.

Thanks for watching.